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European video game age-rating organisation PEGI has said it's 'very aware' NBA 2K20 may get 'too close for comfort' to teaching players gambling after it received a complaint about a controversial casino trailer.

Earlier this week, publisher 2K released a trailer for NBA 2K20 on YouTube that highlighted casino-style elements in the game, such as a slot machine mini-game and a wheel of fortune mini-game.

The trailer, which also highlighted the game's loot box systems, was roundly criticised. 2K later unlisted the video, which has received 16,000 dislikes. Comments include: 'This looks and sounds like I'm watching a casino ad,' and, 'This is legit gambling. They aren't even trying to hide it anymore.'

Adding fuel to the fire, critics pointed out these casino-style games are included in a PEGI 3 video game targeted at children as well as adults.

Yesterday, an email from PEGI addressing a complaint about NBA 2K20's age-rating hit reddit. Eurogamer has verified this email is legitimate with PEGI.

In the email, PEGI said a video game will only carry the gambling descriptor if it includes mechanics that encourage or teach players how to gamble or bet - and NBA 2K20, it insists, does not do this.

However, PEGI said it's aware NBA 2K20 'may get too close for comfort for some people', and said the trailer sparked an internal discussion going on right now.

Here's the response in full:

'We have seen the announcement trailer of NBA 2K20 and noticed the controversy it has caused. We feel it is important to carefully explain when certain content is triggering the gambling descriptor in the PEGI system, but also to show when it does not at this moment.

'A video game gets the gambling content descriptor if it contains moving images that encourage and/or teach the use of games of chance that are played/carried out as a traditional means of gambling.

'We use a help text to clarify this in more detail: This refers to types of betting or gambling for money that is normally played/carried out in casinos, gambling halls, racetracks. This does not cover games where betting or gambling is simply part of the general storyline. The game must actually teach the player how to gamble or bet and/or encourage the player to want to gamble or bet for money in real life.

'For example, this will include games that teach the player how to play card games that are usually played for money or how to play the odds in horse racing.

'It is important to stress that the controversial imagery played a central role in the trailer, but it may not necessarily do so in the game, which has not yet been released.

'At this point in time, PEGI can only comment on the trailer that has been made publicly available.

'The trailer includes imagery that is generally known from casinos (wheel of fortune, slot machines). Using this sort of mechanic to select an item, or character, or action by chance is not the same as teaching how to gamble for money in a casino. These differences currently prevent us from applying the gambling descriptor. But we are very aware that it may get too close for comfort for some people, and that is part of an internal discussion that PEGI is having for the moment. The games industry is evolving constantly (and rapidly in recent years). As a rating organisation, we need to ensure that these developments are reflected in our classification criteria. We do not base our decisions on the content of a single trailer, but we will properly assess how the rating system (and the video games industry in general) should address these concerns.'

PEGI's statement here suggests the organisation will wait until it's seen the final game before making a judgment on NBA 2K20's rating, but it also suggests PEGI is having a deep discussion about its own criteria. If it decides NBA 2K20 does indeed trigger the gambling content descriptor, then the game may lose its PEGI 3 rating.

2K's trailer for NBA 2K20 has kicked up quite the stink, then, although these casino mechanics have been in previous entries in the series. Context is king - the now unlisted trailer puts loot boxes and casino games on a pedestal at a time of increased scrutiny about video games and gambling and loot boxes across the globe.

Games available in most casinos are commonly called casino games. In a casino game, the players gamble cash or casino chips on various possible random outcomes or combinations of outcomes. Casino games are also available in online casinos, where permitted by law. Casino games can also be played outside casinos for entertainment purposes like in parties or in school competitions, some on machines that simulate gambling.

Categories[edit]

There are three general categories of casino games: gaming machines, table games, and random number games. Gaming machines, such as slot machines and pachinko, are usually played by one player at a time and do not require the involvement of casino employees to play. Tables games, such as blackjack or craps, involve one or more players who are competing against the house (the casino itself) rather than each other. Table games are usually conducted by casino employees known as croupiers or dealers. Random number games are based upon the selection of random numbers, either from a computerized random number generator or from other gaming equipment. Random number games may be played at a table or through the purchase of paper tickets or cards, such as keno or bingo.

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Some casino games combine multiple of the above aspects; for example, roulette is a table game conducted by a dealer, which involves random numbers. Casinos may also offer other type of gaming, such as hosting poker games or tournaments, where players compete against each other.

Common casino games[edit]

Notable games that are commonly found at casinos include:

House advantage[edit]

Casino games typically provide a predictable long-term advantage to the casino, or 'house', while offering the players the possibility of a short-term gain that in some cases can be large. Some casino games have a skill element, where the players' decisions have an impact on the results. Players possessing sufficient skills to eliminate the inherent long-term disadvantage (the house edge or vigorish) in a casino game are referred to as advantage players.

The players' disadvantage is a result of the casino not paying winning wagers according to the game's 'true odds', which are the payouts that would be expected considering the odds of a wager either winning or losing. For example, if a game is played by wagering on the number that would result from the roll of one die, true odds would be 5 times the amount wagered since there is a 1 in 6 chance of any single number appearing, assuming that the player gets the original amount wagered back. However, the casino may only pay 4 times the amount wagered for a winning wager.

The house edge or vigorish is defined as the casino profit expressed as the percentage of the player's original bet. (In games such as blackjack or Spanish 21, the final bet may be several times the original bet, if the player double and splits.)

In American roulette, there are two 'zeroes' (0, 00) and 36 non-zero numbers (18 red and 18 black). This leads to a higher house edge compared to European roulette. The chances of a player, who bets 1 unit on red, winning is 18/38 and his chances of losing 1 unit is 20/38. The player's expected value is EV = (18/38 × 1) + (20/38 × (−1)) = 18/38 − 20/38 = −2/38 = −5.26%. Therefore, the house edge is 5.26%. After 10 spins, betting 1 unit per spin, the average house profit will be 10 × 1 × 5.26% = 0.53 units. European roulette wheels have only one 'zero' and therefore the house advantage (ignoring the en prison rule) is equal to 1/37 = 2.7%.

The house edge of casino games varies greatly with the game, with some games having an edge as low as 0.3%. Keno can have house edges up to 25%, slot machines having up to 15%.

The calculation of the roulette house edge is a trivial exercise; for other games, this is not usually the case. Combinatorial analysis and/or computer simulation is necessary to complete the task.

In games which have a skill element, such as blackjack or Spanish 21, the house edge is defined as the house advantage from optimal play (without the use of advanced techniques such as card counting), on the first hand of the shoe (the container that holds the cards). The set of the optimal plays for all possible hands is known as 'basic strategy' and is highly dependent on the specific rules and even the number of decks used. Good blackjack and Spanish 21 games have house edges below 0.5%.

Traditionally, the majority of casinos have refused to reveal the house edge information for their slots games and due to the unknown number of symbols and weightings of the reels, in most cases it is much more difficult to calculate the house edge than that in other casino games. However, due to some online properties revealing this information and some independent research conducted by Michael Shackleford in the offline sector, this pattern is slowly changing.^[1]

In games where players are not competing against the house, such as poker, the casino usually earns money via a commission, known as a 'rake'.

Standard deviation[edit]

The luck factor in a casino game is quantified using standard deviations (SD).^[2] The standard deviation of a simple game like roulette can be calculated using the binomial distribution. In the binomial distribution, SD = √npq, where n = number of rounds played, p = probability of winning, and q = probability of losing. The binomial distribution assumes a result of 1 unit for a win, and 0 units for a loss, rather than −1 units for a loss, which doubles the range of possible outcomes. Furthermore, if we flat bet at 10 units per round instead of 1 unit, the range of possible outcomes increases 10 fold.^[3]

SD (roulette, even-money bet) = 2b√npq, where b = flat bet per round, n = number of rounds, p = 18/38, and q = 20/38.

For example, after 10 rounds at 1 unit per round, the standard deviation will be 2 × 1 × √10 × 18/38 × 20/38 = 3.16 units. After 10 rounds, the expected loss will be 10 × 1 × 5.26% = 0.53. As you can see, standard deviation is many times the magnitude of the expected loss.^[4]

The standard deviation for pai gow poker is the lowest out of all common casino games. Many casino games, particularly slot machines, have extremely high standard deviations. The bigger size of the potential payouts, the more the standard deviation may increase.

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As the number of rounds increases, eventually, the expected loss will exceed the standard deviation, many times over. From the formula, we can see the standard deviation is proportional to the square root of the number of rounds played, while the expected loss is proportional to the number of rounds played. As the number of rounds increases, the expected loss increases at a much faster rate. This is why it is impossible for a gambler to win in the long term. It is the high ratio of short-term standard deviation to expected loss that fools gamblers into thinking that they can win.

It is important for a casino to know both the house edge and variance for all of their games. The house edge tells them what kind of profit they will make as percentage of turnover, and the variance tells them how much they need in the way of cash reserves. The mathematicians and computer programmers that do this kind of work are called gaming mathematicians and gaming analysts. Casinos do not have in-house expertise in this field, so outsource their requirements to experts in the gaming analysis field.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

1. ^'Michael Shackleford is the wizard of odds'. Observer. Retrieved 13 October 2015.
2. ^Hagan, general editor, Julian Harris, Harris (2012). Gaming law : jurisdictional comparisons (1st ed.). London: European Lawyer Reference Series/Thomson Reuters. ISBN978-0414024861.
3. ^Gao, J.Z.; Fong, D.; Liu, X. (April 2011). 'Mathematical analyses of casino rebate systems for VIP gambling'. International Gambling Studies. 11 (1): 93–106. doi:10.1080/14459795.2011.552575. S2CID144540412.
4. ^Andrew, Siegel (2011). Practical Business Statistics. Academic Press. ISBN978-0123877178. Retrieved 13 October 2015.

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