4/12/2022
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The WBC and WBA super middleweight titles are up for grabs when Canelo Alvarez and Avni Yildirim meet at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The fight card is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on DAZN, with the title bout set to begin around 10 p.m. ET. Below, we break down the Canelo-Yildirim odds, with boxing picks and predictions.
- GGG 2 odds, pick. Online sportsbook, proboxingodds.com, has Golovkin as the favorite (as of Sept. 12), which isn't too much of a surprise considering many felt he did enough to garner a.
- Canelo vs GGG 2 odds (as of Oct 2017) Early rematch odds label the champion as the favorite again at approximately -165 while Canelo is sitting around +135. Should betting lines be closer for.
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Canelo vs. Yildirim: Fight odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Canelo Alvarez: -5000 (bet $5,000 to win $100) Avni Yildirim: +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)
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Alvares has an implied win probability of 98.04% with the -5000 money line odds. Those odds can be expressed as a fraction of 1/50 or decimal of 1.02.
Canelo vs. Yildirim: Tale of the tape
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez
Canelo (54-1-2, 36 KOs) heads to South Florida as the overwhelming favorite against the Turkish challenger. He recorded an 11th-round knockout against Sergey Kovalev Nov. 2, 2019, and beat Callum Smith by unanimous decision Dec. 19, 2020.
He hasn’t lost in 13 straight bouts (12-0-1) since a majority-decision setback to Floyd Mayweather Sept. 14, 2013, and he has six KO/TKOs during the span with four unanimous-decision wins, a majority-decision, a split-decision and a split draw against Gennadiy Golovkin. “Cinnamon” weighed in at 167.6 pounds, 0.4 pounds below the limit.
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Avni Yildirim
Yildirim (21-2, 12 KOs) is looking to stun the world, a la Buster Douglas vs. Mike Tyson. He suffered a technical-decision loss to Anthony Dirrell Feb. 23, 2019, losing out on a chance at the then-vacant WBC strap. Like Canelo, “Mr. Robot” weighed in at 167.6 pound.
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Canelo vs. Yildirim: Odds, predictions and picks
There is no way to justify risking 50 times your potential return on Canelo (-5000) on the 3-way line. You’ll have to get really specific to make a profit.
You cannot even bet on a fight finish type, as Canelo by KO/TKO probably wouldn’t be a very good value anyway.
Instead, look to round group betting for a better play. If you are a little more adventurous, taking Round Group Betting 1, target ROUNDS 5-6 (+350) and ROUNDS 7-8 (+600) for the win by either fighter. If the fight ends anywhere from Rounds 5 through 8, you’ll be well ahead, although you will lose one end.
Or you could just go with Round Group Betting 3, and make a bet on ROUNDS 5-8 (+185) to nearly double up, and you need not pick a fight winner.
If you’re less adventurous, you could cross your fingers and look to Round Group Betting 4, taking fight finish in ROUNDS 7-12 (+250).
Lastly, it’s worth a small-unit play taking SAUL ALVAREZ TO WIN AFTER BEING KNOCKED DOWN (+1000). Perhaps Yildirim catches him with a surprise shot early. Canelo is going to win, so why not give it a try? Just don’t get crazy.
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Boxing Junkie:
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Upon studying the latest Gennadiy Golovkin vs. Canelo odds, I realized something — for the first time in 14 years as a professional, Golovkin will open as the underdog in a fight.
And I am not surprised in the slightest.
In fact, I’ll put my neck on the line and say this — anyone who still believes that Golovkin is the monster he once was will be disappointed once this fight is made. And according to reports, both guys have agreed to a third fight that could go down as early as the fall of 2020.
The prospect of seeing Canelo vs. Golovkin 3 earlier than this is unlikely, given how the coronavirus outbreak has put sports on the backburner for the foreseeable. But those excited at the prospect will get the fight. I am certain of that.
While I am not exactly excited about this matchup, I’ll still be watching. Why? Well, part of me wants to believe that GGG still has what it takes to make it a spectacle. But is this a case of my heart talking louder than my head?
I’m going to explain why this unification fight just doesn’t have the same appeal in 2020, but first, let’s take a look at the latest Canelo vs. GGG betting odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
These odds make for interesting reading. What’s more, they confirmed to me that there are still plenty of boxing betting fans who believe Golovkin can beat Canelo.
I was keen to see if the odds would change within the course of seven days, as I was confident that they would. Canelo opened at -350 on the same betting site, while Golovkin’s odds were +260.
Now, some will argue that there is serious betting value in taking Golovkin at those odds. This is a genuine world-class talent who has only ever lost one fight — to Canelo — and in my opinion, he probably deserved to win that fight.
But I’m not sure he is the same fighter. I’ll explain why a little later.
Ahead of their first bout in September 2017, Golovkin opened as the -170 favorite over Canelo (+165) and closed at -200 to the Mexican’s +145.
In the rematch a year later, Golovkin opened at -170 to Canelo’s +150, closing at -365 to his opponent’s +175.
You can see that the bookmakers feel the same way as I do.
The Latest on Canelo vs. Golovkin 3
According to reports, Canelo was set to face Britain’s unbeaten slickster, Billy Joe Saunders, on May 2 in Las Vegas.
That matchup would have been a lot more exciting, in my opinion, but will likely be postponed due to the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19. As such, a little rescheduling will probably be in order.
This could very well open the gate to Canelo vs. Golovkin 3 in 2020, which has reportedly been agreed to by both camps.
The fight is being looked at for September, according to that report, which means Canelo and Golovkin — who was initially expected to fight earlier this year — will attempt to put an end to their rivalry, once and for all.
Well, if Golovkin wins the fight, it would almost certainly pave the way for a fourth fight, given that both men would be tied at one win and a draw from three contests.
Golovkin earned a controversial win over Ukraine’s Sergiy Derevyanchenko in October to claim the vacant IBF and IBO middleweight titles.
It is unclear if the fight will be at middleweight, where Canelo holds the WBA and The Ring straps, or up at super-middleweight where he has the same straps as well as the IBF crown.
One thing I am definitely concerned about ahead of this fight is that Golovkin could look every one of his 38 years when he steps in against Canelo.
The Kazakh legend will turn 38 in April, and after a long professional career and a lengthy spell in the unpaid ranks, he doesn’t have much left in the sport. Not ideal against this version of Canelo, who has entered his prime.
I predicted that Golovkin would struggle against Derevyanchenko in October, going as far as to pick him to win the fight. It was the worst performance I have ever seen from GGG, who had entered the fight as the -450 favorite.
Despite being knocked down in the first round, I had Derevyanchenko winning a close fight and was disappointed for him, if not surprised, when the judges awarded Golovkin a unanimous decision.
But that’s boxing.
Despite earning the 41st win of an illustrious career, Golovkin looked disjointed, tired, and far from the all-conquering wrecking ball of his prime. And that’s because, well, he is not in his prime anymore.
Canelo, on the other hand, looked superb against Daniel Jacobs in May and knocked out former light heavyweight boogieman Sergey Kovalev in November to win a title in four separate weight classes.
Sure, Kovalev might have been past his best and on a quick turnaround following a war against Anthony Yarde, but he has the momentum heading into this fight.
Will Canelo Knock Golovkin Out?
Even if I see Canelo looking the sharper of the two when this fight is made, I would be very surprised to see a knockout.
I’m not ruling it out, of course, but I think Golovkin’s chin is still iron cast.
What we have seen over the years is an evolution in the way Canelo fights, and he will be looking to use his boxing skills in the trilogy fight.
He will feel that he has proven himself as a knockout artist over the past few years against the likes of Kovalev, Rocky Fielding, and Liam Smith, so expect a measured and patient approach this time around.
I suppose you could argue that this was his approach in the first encounter between the two. When compared with the second bout, Canelo was more cautious of the power of GGG but pretty much stood toe to toe with him in the rematch.
He knows he can take Golovkin’s power. The Kazakh has two KOs in his last five fights, which came against Steve Rolls and Vanes Martirosyan. However, when the opposition has been of a higher caliber, he hasn’t been able to be as ruthless.
Prior to Canelo going the full 12 with him, Golovkin earned a razor-thin majority decision win over Daniel Jacobs. His last fight, against Derevyanchenko, also went the distance.
The only other fight that Golovkin was unable to finish inside the distance was an eight-rounder against Ian Gardner in April 2008.
So, either his power is mostly ineffective against elite-level middleweights, or they have been on the wane for some time. His chin, however, has held up. He has never been dropped in his professional career, and I don’t expect Alvarez to change this.
Canelo Vs Ggg News
It’s not out of the question, of course, but unlikely.
Can he beat Canelo? Well, without giving you a bloated response, all I’ll say that he has a chance as long as he is in the ring. But if the question was reframed to “will he beat Canelo?”, I’d probably give you a blunt “no.”
As recently as June last year, I was somewhat up for seeing this fight. That was before I started to see major cracks emerging in Golovkin’s armor.
The fight against Rolls was a joke. The guy was essentially a personal trainer who had never fought a 12-round fight, with all due respect. Still, Rolls landed shots with ease in that second round.
Canelo Alvarez And Ggg Fight
And didn’t he look very troubled by Derevyanchenko in October? His promoter, Eddie Hearn, claimed that he was ill ahead of the fight. Believe that if you will.
More than this, his willingness to throw longtime trainer Abel Sanchez overboard following the loss to Canelo was an insight into a changed mentality. It seems that this was his solution to the issue — to put the blame on someone else.
But at 37, was this the right move to make? Is Johnathon Banks the right coach for a guy that has recently made wholesale changes to his career, including promotional and distribution deals for his fights?
Whether the disruptions to his life were the reasons behind a poor performance against Derevyanchenko remains to be seen. But I’ll bet that he is just not the same fighter anymore.
Canelo vs. GGG 3 – Who Will Win the Fight?
Alvarez vs. Golovkin 3 might be the biggest fight to make in the middleweight division right now, but I’m not sure it will be as close as the first two.
If I had to put my money down on either fighter on any of the top boxing betting sites right now, I would back Canelo. But rather than giving you an answer now, let’s see if anything changes closer to the bout.
With the uncertainty that has arisen out of the sporting world’s battle with the coronavirus, an announcement on Canelo vs. GGG 3 is probably not feasible for a while. But when things are confirmed, I’ll be back with a breakdown of the bout and a clear and concise rationale for my pick.
Until then, folks.
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